Step 1: Active Investors
Active investors rely on speculation about short-term future market movements and ignore the lessons embedded in vast amounts of historical data. They commonly engage in picking stocks, times, managers, or investment styles.
Stock pickers don't realize that virtually all of the information and forecasts about a stock, a sector, or an economy is quickly digested by the totality of market participants and swiftly embedded into the price. This market efficiency ensures that prices agreed upon between willing buyers and willing sellers are the best estimate of fair market values. This painting illustrates that available information and news is "baked in the cake," and no one has special knowledge that is not already included in the price, except for inside information (which is illegal).
Nobel Laureates provide us with research and hundreds of peer-reviewed published papers that collectively discredit the myth that active investors can consistently beat the market. Their research supports the argument that a globally diversified, low-cost strategy maximizes returns at given levels of risk.
Time Pickers or market timers claim the ability to predict the future movement of the stock market, moving into the market before it goes up and getting out before it goes down. However, numerous studies from industry and academic experts demonstrate market timers have no such ability to beat the market, and they should be avoided just like the lion's cage at Barnum's circus.
Envision the market as a wild bull, bucking up and down, rearing and spinning. Investors are like bull riders, trying to hang on as the bull kicks and twists, making for a tumultuous ride. Matching the right portfolio to an individual's ability to handle risk is akin to finding the right bull that each investor can ride through all the ups and downs of the market.
The blend of investments that is appropriate for a particular investor is known as asset allocation, also called risk exposure, and is based on an investor's risk capacity. Asset allocation is the most important factor in optimizing a portfolio's expected return, thus it is essentially the most important decision an individual investor can make.